Respite from European Concerns?


“Europe remains the big story, dominating everything else. This is the single most important thing to understand, for both traders and investors. It might start to be a case of the “dog not barking” for those who know their Sherlock Holmes. In the absence of fresh bad news, the market seems to have an upward tilt.
There was a developing story this week that is still given short shrift by many observers: the recognition that the European “solution” will be incremental in nature. Regular readers know that I have been a lonely advocate for this position for many months (as noted in this new summary of articles). I forecast that there will be no magic bullet and no single meeting with a comprehensive plan. I anticipate that we will observe a gradual process of compromise and negotiation. Eventually this will include many programs and participants. The result will be messy and will not please everyone. My time frame for general recognition that this is “working” is mid-2o12. I put “working” in quotes because the underlying problems will linger for years after the situation is no longer viewed as a crisis.”


Posted on December 27, 2011, in Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink. Leave a comment.

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